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| #858706 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 03.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has increased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is now 35 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass near 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast of the center. Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion is now 090/11. Bonnie should move generally eastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the south and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast. The model guidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well. The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie will be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in about 12 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening through the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a post-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours. The low should subsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.9N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.9N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 35.1N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 34.6N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
