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| #858756 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 04.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few hours. The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. An earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was devoid of convection. It is assumed that, with the new convective burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist. Thus, the initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt. A further increase in shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. Global models show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon after that. The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow over the western Atlantic. The track model guidance shows Bonnie moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.9N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
