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| #858811 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 04.Jun.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, and the compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in the southeast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensity is held at that value. Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold waters should prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, and Bonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday. The depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, at about 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies. A general eastward to east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. The official track forecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, to account for the more southerly initial position and motion, and lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.0N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.5N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 34.0N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 33.3N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
