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#8709 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 16.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT
150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN
STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN
THAT AREA. OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 30.9N 87.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.5N 87.2W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0600Z 34.7N 86.2W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING