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| #871460 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 PM 02.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season. The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
