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| #871534 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 03.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before landfall. A steady weakening trend will commence after the tropical cyclone moves inland. Based on the latest track guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit reintensification at that time. Earl is expected to become a remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central Mexico by the weekend or sooner. Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure system. Little change has been made to the previous official forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus. After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
