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DANGEROUS EXPANDING HUR-FORCE WINDFIELD WITH DBL EYEWALL #MARIA .. OUTER WALL NOW LASHING ST. CROIX.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Irma) , Major: 9 (Irma) Florida - Any: 9 (Irma) Major: 9 (Irma)
38.4N 70.3W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ne at 8 mph
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17.9N 65.6W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 917mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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#873400 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 PM 30.Aug.2016)
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The system has still not become better organized on satellite
imagery, with limited evidence of banding features. There is an
apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the
low-level center. The highest flight-level wind reported by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest
SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used
for the advisory intensity. There is some evidence of increasing
upper-level outflow to the north. The latest intensity
guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less
shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official
intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the
previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus.
Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a
hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies
tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a
hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast
at this time.

Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is
northwestward, or 320/4 kt. The global models continue to show a
mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United
States during the next couple of days. This should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in
24-48 hours. The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a
bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the
multi-model consensus. Therefore the official track forecast is
also west of the previous one.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is
likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.4N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch