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| #873592 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 01.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016 Gaston has weakened a little overnight. The cloud pattern has lost some organization with the convection more asymmetric and not quite as deep as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak CI-numbers have decreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 80 kt based on that data. Gaston is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today while it remains in an environment of moderate southwesterly shear. These conditions should cause steady weakening, and Gaston will likely fall below hurricane strength by tonight. Continued weakening is forecast when the cyclone moves near the Azores on Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus. The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward about 17 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day while Gaston remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A decrease in forward speed is predicted after that time due to the approach of a large extratropical low. Gaston will likely be absorbed by the extratropical low in about 3 days. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the tightly-packed models. Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the western-most islands of Flores and Corvo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 36.8N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 37.9N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 38.7N 35.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 39.2N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
