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| #873663 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 01.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 The eye of Gaston is no longer visible in geostationary imagery, which shows the coldest convective tops are located west and north of the center. Dvorak classifications have decreased to T3.5/4.5 from TAFB and T3.0/4.0 from SAB. Based on the winds seen in the earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is lowered conservatively to 70 kt for this advisory. Steady weakening is forecast as Gaston is moving over waters below 26C and in an environment of 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear. The NHC forecast is a little lower than the previous one following the trend of all the guidance. Gaston should become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. The hurricane has accelerated east-northeastward this afternoon, with an initial motion estimate of 075/25. The track model guidance is in good agreement showing Gaston continuing east-northeastward with a decrease in forward speed as the system weakens and decouples from the mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the latest multi- model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 38.3N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 38.9N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 39.5N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 40.3N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 41.6N 25.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
