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| #873764 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 02.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Conventional satellite imagery and two earlier microwave images show the center of circulation decoupled well to the west of the remaining deep convection. The initial intensity is decreased to 55 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Continued weakening is expected as the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures and remains in a strong vertical shear environment. Gaston is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, with dissipation in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the IVCN intensity consensus model. Because Gaston's low-level circulation has decoupled from the mid-level flow due to the persistent strong shear, the cyclone's forward speed has decreased while moving eastward, or 080/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. At the 36-hour period, Gaston should turn northeastward in response to a frontal system approaching from the northwest and open up into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days. The NHC track foreast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 38.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 38.9N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 39.7N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 41.3N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts/Stewart |
