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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#874067 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:58 AM 04.Sep.2016)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...HERMINE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO NEW JERSEY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 70.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point
southward has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Duck to west of Watch Hill
* Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 70.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and the north with a
decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a
slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore
of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, the
cyclone is forecast to intensify to hurricane force late tonight and
on Monday.

Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward
within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday,
and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions
along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during
the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the
next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly
follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local
officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening
inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations
between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm
Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify
for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under
development by the National Weather Service and planned for
operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Carolina sounds...1 to 2 feet
Hampton Roads area...1 to 2 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain
offshore through Monday/Labor Day. Hermine will produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches over southern New England from Long Island
to eastern Massachusetts, and additional rainfall of one inch or
less along the coastline of the mid-Atlantic states.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the
coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts