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Remnant #96L pulsing today. We'll keep watch. Looking to next month - a possible big uptick in the Atlantic. Explained: #flhurricane.com
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 285 (Matthew) , Major: 4287 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 321 (Hermine) Major: 4287 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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#874119 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 05.Sep.2016)
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016

Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a
broad curved band of showers to the north of the center.
High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls
rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface
winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt,
both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60
kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the
system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this
should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast
is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These
models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up
to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also
reflected in the official forecast.

The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center
position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of
030/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering
environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone
should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward
speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by
Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the
forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine
off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has
been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to
the east of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 38.8N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/0000Z 39.2N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/1200Z 39.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 07/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/1200Z 41.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch