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| #875197 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 17.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the second option. Strong upper-level northerly winds are expected to continue affecting the circulation, and if the convection returns it will quickly be removed from the center. Therefore, Julia is forecast once again to become a remnant low soon and gradually decay. Julia is drifting northwestward at about 3 kt embedded within very light steering flow. Most of the global models keep a low meandering over water off the southeast U.S. coast, and so does the NHC forecast. Some global models actually regenerate the low, but given the strong shear, this solution does not seem realistic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.6N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 30.9N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 32.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
