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| #875221 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 18.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Surprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback. Thunderstorm activity has fired near and southeast of the center, with the cyclone looking considerably better organized than any time in the last day or so. The initial wind speed is kept at 25 kt in line with the TAFB satellite classification. The future of Julia looks less clear than it did yesterday. While there is currently strong shear affecting the cyclone, this shear is forecast to relax in about 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough moves over the southeastern United States. Considering the current appearance of Julia and the more favorable environment ahead of it, Julia is no longer forecast to become a remnant low. Instead, a more likely scenario is that Julia holds its own or strengthens some while it moves slowly northward near the Gulf Stream. It is best to be conservative with the intensity forecast at this stage, since this overnight convective trend could be misleading. Nonetheless, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, on the low side of the guidance near the LGEM model. Julia has started moving north-northwestward overnight at about 4 kt. A slow motion toward the north is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone moves between a weak west Atlantic subtropical ridge and the southeastern United States trough. The model guidance has shifted northward near the North Carolina coast, although the GFDL and ECMWF remain offshore. Given the uncertainty and continuity constraints, it would be preferable to wait another model cycle before making a larger northward change, and hence the current forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope. It would not be surprising if further northward changes have to be made later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 31.3N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 31.8N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 32.4N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 33.3N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
