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| #875575 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 22.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Although Karl`s cloud pattern is better organized than 24 hours ago, the cyclone lacks an inner core, and there is no new data or intensity estimates suggesting that the winds have increased. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Karl is heading toward even warmer waters, and the shear is expected to be light for the next day or two. These conditions should favor some slight strengthening during that period. Model guidance suggests that additional intensification will likely occur after Karl`s recurvature in a couple of days. This is reflected in the NHC forecast which bring Karl to hurricane status as it moves northeastward over the open Atlantic, and before it becomes extratropical. Karl continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is about to reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force Karl to turn northward in about a day or so. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to turn sharply toward the northeast while it becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow associated with an amplifying mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast follows very closely the multimodel consensus, and is in the middle of the guidance envelope, which in fact is tightly packed at least for the next 3 days. Although Karl is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda, interests in that island should monitor the progress of Karl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 24.0N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 25.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.0N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 29.3N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 31.5N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 36.5N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
