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| #875597 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 22.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 Even with visible satellite imagery this morning, Karl`s center has still been difficult to locate, and it`s unclear exactly how well defined it is. Deep convection has increased markedly since yesterday, but the overall cloud pattern is rather elongated from the east-southeast to the west-northwest. In the absence of any in situ data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Karl is moving northwestward and appears to have sped up temporarily with an initial motion of 305/15 kt. The cyclone is moving between a mid-level high centered to its northeast and a mid-level low located north of Puerto Rico. Karl is expected to move around the western periphery of the high during the next few days, turning northward by 36 hours and then accelerating northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies by 48 hours. Based on the adjustment of the initial position, the track guidance has shifted a bit left of the positions indicated in the previous advisory. As a result, the updated official forecast has been adjusted westward during the first 48 hours, lying close to the ECMWF solution as well as the TVCN multi-model consensus. Even with this shift, the official forecast lies close to the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Karl lies right along the edge of a zone of higher shear to its west, and the various analyses are showing about 15 kt of southeasterly shear over the system. The global models continue to show the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of days, but there are differences. For example, GFS fields show the shear decreasing below 10 kt for a day or two, while the ECMWF only shows the shear decreasing below 10 kt for about 12 hours. This continues to make the intensity forecast difficult. For now, the official intensity forecast remains close to the ICON intensity consensus, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Based on the latest forecast, the western edge of the tropical-storm-force wind field could begin to affect Bermuda during the next 36 to 48 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service has therefore issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.0N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 26.3N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 30.2N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 32.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 38.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 48.0N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Campbell/Rubin-Oster |
