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| #876332 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:04 AM 30.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew during the past few hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt from the SFMR instrument. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 979 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. This also requires significant changes to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the revised forecast could be conservative. There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous regular advisory. It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance over the southern semicircle. Based on this, no warnings are required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time. A warning might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center moves to the south of the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
