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| #877747 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 AM 11.Oct.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 ...NICOLE STRENGTHENS, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 65.9W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 65.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion should continue today. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a northeast turn on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near Bermuda Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda by Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Wednesday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
