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| #878235 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 16.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 Nicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized than several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still evident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold cloud tops. The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is over 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the next day or two, there should be enough instability for the continuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Therefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it is absorbed by an upper-level trough. Nicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now largely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A slow northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the approach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is currently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used for the forecast wind radii. The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas. Recent wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas exist near the hurricane. In addition, swells from Nicole are spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC and TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 39.1N 46.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 41.0N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 43.8N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 48.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 58.6N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
