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| #878305 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 17.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged eye. The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Although not much weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C. Soon thereafter, the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large extratropical cyclone near Greenland. Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt. The system has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies that lie just to the north. However, a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward soon. As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward later in the forecast period. The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 41.0N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1800Z 51.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 65.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
