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#8793 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 16.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z THU SEP 16 2004

AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
ELSEWHERE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 87.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 125SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 250SE 125SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 350SE 250SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 87.5W AT 16/1500Z...INLAND
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 87.7W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.6N 86.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 81.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN