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#8798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 16.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

IVAN IS MOVING 010/12 ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA. WHILE IT IS
WEAKENING...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA INDICATES
THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY. IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT GETS FARTHER
INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 24 HR. THEY SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 72 HR.
BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...AND THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IVAN WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE REMAINS A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 32.0N 87.5W 65 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 17/0000Z 33.6N 86.9W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/1200Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 81.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED