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| #880295 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 PM 22.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Satellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen. The overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a large mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65 kt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season. Otto is the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea, eclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly shear during the next couple of days. Most of the guidance models show Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and so does the official forecast. Stronger shear, as well as land interaction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from restrengthening over the eastern Pacific. Satellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during the day. A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to move slowly to the west or west-northwest. As the ridge builds, the forward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves across the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that basin. The most notable change is that the guidance has come into better agreement on the track, although there are still some significant speed differences. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast follows that trend. A hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early tomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.6N 80.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.9N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 11.0N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 10.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/1800Z 9.8N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 9.5N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Pasch |
