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| #880315 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 PM 22.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 1000 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the intensification of Otto has stopped since the last advisory. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 988 mb with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting, at best, an intensity of 65 kt. In addition, satellite imagery shows a decrease in the coverage of the associated convection. The arrested development might be due to dry air entrainment in the eastern semicircle as suggested by water vapor imagery and recent microwave overpasses. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/3. A mid- to upper-level ridge building over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Mexico should steer Otto generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, which would bring the center inland over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica during that time. After 48 hours, the dynamical models forecast the ridge to build westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and steer Otto westward or west-southwestward to the south of El Salvador, Guatemala, and eastern Mexico. The forecast guidance is in good agreement with the direction of the track, but there remains some spread in the forward speed. The new forecast track is again a little to the north and a little faster than the previous track, and it lies near the center of forecast guidance envelope. It is unclear how long the current arrested development will continue, as most of the intensity guidance forecasts strengthening before landfall. The new intensity forecast is based on the premise that intensification should resume after 12 hours and continue until landfall, with Otto forecast to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane. The cyclone should weaken significantly while crossing Central America, and as shown in the previous forecast strong shear should prevent re-intensification over the Pacific. The latest forecast track and wind radii require hurricane warnings for portions of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.7N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 80.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.2N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 11.1N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/0000Z 10.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC 96H 27/0000Z 10.0N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 10.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
