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| #880356 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 AM 23.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 1000 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016 Otto has lost some organization since yesterday. The last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission reported that the eyewall has dissipated, along with a 6-mb rise in pressure. Still, the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 68 kt, with SFMR winds of about 50 kt. The initial intensity is conservatively reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. It appears that the southeasterly shear has been a little stronger than forecast yesterday, which has allowed some drier air to mix into the cyclone. This is evident in the inner-core data from the Air Force mission, which showed rather low dewpoints at 700 mb. The global models are suggesting the shear will decrease before landfall, and Otto should be moving over warmer waters later today that have not be subjected to any storm-forced upwelling. These factors suggest some restrengthening is possible overnight and Thursday, which is consistent with the bulk of the guidance models. Stronger shear over the eastern Pacific is expected to cause gradual weakening of Otto in that basin, with remnant low status likely by day 5. The official intensity forecast has been reduced somewhat from the last one but still calls for Otto to be a hurricane at landfall. Aircraft fixes show that Otto continues to move toward the west-northwest at 4 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the north of Otto should cause the tropical cyclone to turn westward and accelerate tonight. Late in the period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is tightly clustered on this solution, and the latest official forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.2N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.3N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 11.2N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 10.8N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 26/1200Z 10.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 9.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 10.0N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake |
