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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#895782 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 18.Jul.2017)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS DON WEAKER AS IT HEADS TOWARD
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Bonaire

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, and Curacao should monitor
the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.0 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion is
expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Don will move across the Windward Islands later today or tonight,
and then move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
before Don moves through the Windward Islands. The tropical storm
is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure late
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts across Barbados,
Trinidad and Tobago, and the southern Windward Islands through
Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown