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| #895785 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 18.Jul.2017) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning. The highest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of 30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become less defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation. Advisories are being maintained for now pending another reconnaissance aircraft mission later today. Increasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or so. The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave within 36 hours. This could occur much sooner than indicated below. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Don should continue to move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.7N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
