Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Nate) , Major: 28 (Maria) Florida - Any: 38 (Irma) Major: 38 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#897609 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 06.Aug.2017)
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is
likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated
to enable the issuance of a tropical storm warning and watch for
Yucatan and Belize respectively. The scatterometer pass and NOAA
data buoy observations indicate that the maximum winds are near
30 kt. The disturbance has been experiencing westerly vertical
shear due to a nearby upper-level low and this has been inhibiting
development. Global model predictions show that this low will soon
dissipate and an upper-level anticyclone will become established
over the area. Therefore, strengthening is likely with the main
impediment being interaction with land. The official intensity
forecast is a little above the model consensus. It should be
noted that the system could become a hurricane between 72 and 96
hours, i.e. prior to reaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.

Since the center lacks definition, the initial location and motion
are quite uncertain, and my best guess for the current motion is
290/10. The steering pattern for the disturbance/tropical cyclone
is expected to be fairly straightforward and persistent for the
next few days. A general west-northwestward track is expected to
continue until landfall in mainland Mexico. The official track
forecast is generally a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 15.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 21.2N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch