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| #897919 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 09.Aug.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated that Franklin was very close to hurricane strength. Since the time of the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a faint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite images. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making Franklin the first hurricane of the season. There is some northerly shear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident over the outer circulation`s northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry air is nearby. These environmental conditions are not expected to be detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional strengthening before landfall tonight. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours from now to check the strength of the cyclone. The hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion estimated to be 270/10. There are essentially no changes to the track forecast or reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a mid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue to steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 20.1N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 19.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
