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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#898684 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 17.Aug.2017)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
200 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance
should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone
later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

Satellite imagery indicates the disturbance is close to becoming a
tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven