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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#900369 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 28.Aug.2017)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY
ORGANIZED...
...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within
within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated
with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 32.2 North,
longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near
12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will move over or near the coast of South
Carolina tonight and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
These winds are over water well to the east of the area of
minimum pressure. Although the disturbance has not become any
better organized today, there is still potential for the system
to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. After that
time, the low should begin to intensify as an extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
to the east of the area of minimum pressure.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area tonight.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some
flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday
Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila