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#900591 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 29.Aug.2017)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Holly Beach to Morgan
City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Holly Beach to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City to Grand Isle

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
estimated from data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane near
latitude 29.2 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On the forecast track,
the broad circulation center of Harvey is expected to move inland
over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning
area by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center
crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of
39 mph and a gust to 54 mph.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston
from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm
totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including
the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.

A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical
cyclone rainfall record. The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands,
Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT. This total
is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to
3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist
during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme
southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi and coastal Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila