Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 65 (Michael) , Major: 65 (Michael) Florida - Any: 65 (Michael) Major: 65 (Michael)
Login to remove ads

Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#901671 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 06.Sep.2017)

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between
a lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix,
SSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an
enhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid
intensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to
60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number.

Initial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB
satellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots
should continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does
reveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable
upper level outflow and, given considerable distance,
do any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose
at this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will
continue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to
support intensification through 72 hours.

Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support
for somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track
has subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous
forecast track but remains very close to model consensus.


INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 13.7N 46.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 14.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 14.8N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.4N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 20.2N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

Forecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers