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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#901780 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 07.Sep.2017)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017

Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in
the northeastern quadrant. Satellite estimates are about the same
as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the
hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current
intensity. Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with
decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours. Thus strengthening is
expected as long as the center remains offshore. It is still
puzzling why most of the guidance don`t intensify this much, but
since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the
official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance.

The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to
build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a
faster pace. Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track,
although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward
motion. The only significant change from the previous advisory is
to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast. Given
the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 21.5N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.5N 94.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 95.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.8N 95.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake