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#Kirk did not live long and prosper, for now. However #98L is likely undergoing TC Genesis and may succeed. Carolinas may want to watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Florence) , Major: 370 (Maria) Florida - Any: 380 (Irma) Major: 380 (Irma)
31.6N 44.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
E at 12 mph
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#901888 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 07.Sep.2017)

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

After strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of
Jose appears to have leveled off this evening. Nonetheless, Jose
is an impressive category 3 hurricane. The eye remains quite
distinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric. In
addition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of
the favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is
held at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental
conditions. Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to
an increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity
forecast is in line with the consensus models. This forecast is
slightly lower than the previous one.

The initial motion is 280/16 kt. The track forecast philosophy is
unchanged from earlier. A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to
move west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the
hurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move
northwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge. The
NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a
tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.


INIT 08/0300Z 15.6N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.1N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 25.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi