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| #902258 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 09.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to have an impressive satellite signature, with a nearly clear 15 to 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just finished a mission through Jose, with maximum flight-level winds of 122 kt and maximum SFMR winds of 109 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 115 kt. The initial motion remains a steady 310/12 kt, with Jose`s motion through the first 36 hours being driven by a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As the ridge shifts to the east of the system on day 2, a turn toward the north is expected, with a decrease in the forward motion. By day 3, the steering currents are expected to become quite weak, with Jose moving north of the mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer low passes well to the northeast. This will induce a short-lived motion to the east, but as the ridge rebuilds west and then north of Jose, a gradual westward turn of the cyclone is expected. The 5-day forecast depicts Jose completing a relatively small anticyclonic loop over the open Atlantic. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, and closely follows the consensus guidance and operational ECMWF/GFS/UKMET. The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, and thus little change in short-term intensity is expected. Although water temperatures will be sufficiently warm to support an intense cyclone, moderate shear - of varying directions - is expected to lead to gradual weakening over the next couple of days as Jose meanders over the open Atlantic. The updated intensity forecast is close to the previous prediction, but is stronger than the SHIPS model, due to the IVCN/ECMWF models maintaining a more intense system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 19.8N 63.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.1N 65.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.8N 67.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 26.3N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 25.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake |
