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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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#902474 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 10.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017

The eye of Jose has become cloud filled and indistinct in the
visible satellite imagery and is no longer discernible in the
infrared imagery. A 1536Z GPM pass showed the eye and inner core
were degrading. Not surprisingly, current satellite intensity
estimates have trended down, with ADT carrying 5.3, CPHC and SAB
at 5.5, and TAFB at 6.0. The initial intensity has been lowered to
105 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 315/15. Global models show that
the mid level high which has been responsible for the persistent
northwest track will gradually build southward over the next 36
hours, causing the system to slow down on Monday and begin turning
more toward the north. After 48 hours, the high will build to the
west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop
between 48 and 96 hours. After 96 hours, mid-level ridging becomes
reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a
west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period.
One minor adjustment is that the models suggest this loop may occur
a little slower than previously indicated, and the forecast
reflects this change which is closer to the models.

Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, having
outrun the narrow zone of weaker shear it was under previously.
This shear will increase further over the next 12 to 24 hours and
additional weakening appears likely through the next few days
despite SSTs over 29C over the entire forecast track. During the
latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to
allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is
somewhat low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 22.8N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.4N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 26.0N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 26.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 24.2N 68.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 25.1N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard