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| #902474 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 10.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 The eye of Jose has become cloud filled and indistinct in the visible satellite imagery and is no longer discernible in the infrared imagery. A 1536Z GPM pass showed the eye and inner core were degrading. Not surprisingly, current satellite intensity estimates have trended down, with ADT carrying 5.3, CPHC and SAB at 5.5, and TAFB at 6.0. The initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 315/15. Global models show that the mid level high which has been responsible for the persistent northwest track will gradually build southward over the next 36 hours, causing the system to slow down on Monday and begin turning more toward the north. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between 48 and 96 hours. After 96 hours, mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a west to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period. One minor adjustment is that the models suggest this loop may occur a little slower than previously indicated, and the forecast reflects this change which is closer to the models. Jose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, having outrun the narrow zone of weaker shear it was under previously. This shear will increase further over the next 12 to 24 hours and additional weakening appears likely through the next few days despite SSTs over 29C over the entire forecast track. During the latter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is somewhat low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 22.8N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.4N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 26.0N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 26.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.2N 68.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 25.1N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard |
