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#Kirk did not live long and prosper, for now. However #98L is likely undergoing TC Genesis and may succeed. Carolinas may want to watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Florence) , Major: 370 (Maria) Florida - Any: 380 (Irma) Major: 380 (Irma)
31.6N 44.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
E at 12 mph
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#902853 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 12.Sep.2017)

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous
blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding
features. The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow
associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its
west. A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The dynamical models
indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the
next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an
upper-level high becomes situated over the system. Thus a little
weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later
in the forecast period, is expected. Confidence in this intensity
forecast is, however, lower than usual.

Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary
and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt.
Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents.
The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the
west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two. The anticyclone is
then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the
forecast period. This evolution of the steering flow should result
in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next
several days. Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is
well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast
is near the left side of the guidance suite.


INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

Forecaster Pasch