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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#903033 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 13.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Deep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated
location of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours,
and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS
ADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with
moderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then
increase further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected
during the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in
intensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a
mid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic
energy to maintain the cyclone`s intensity in an environment of
higher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose
now appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical
ridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering
mechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence
from the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern
should cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72
hours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by
days 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies
roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 25.2N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 27.0N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 28.0N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 33.7N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 36.6N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan