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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#903164 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 15.Sep.2017)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 27.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 26.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 27.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA