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#903198 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 15.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with
Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are
broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a
hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed
60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for
intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement
in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be
short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by
all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to
that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to
decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast.

Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west-
northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the
storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic
ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in
that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a
small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance
remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although
the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF
models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one,
near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that
the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225
miles, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.

2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well
east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-
force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could
approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north
along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other
direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east
coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress
of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake