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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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#903416 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 17.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little
change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon.
The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development
of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the
cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height
in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting
through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical
intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening,
even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects
little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then
shows gradual weakening through 5 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the
western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours.
Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to
northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast
period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the
mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave
trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast
has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which
have also shifted a bit westward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts