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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#903446 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 17.Sep.2017)
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing
tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is
fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in
a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical
depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given
what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already
struggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much
better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase
to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is
expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours,
if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4
days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the
north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should
cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for
the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast
remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too
different from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg