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#903487 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 17.Sep.2017)
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but
since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain
the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level
environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few
days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose
organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and
ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3,
and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn
west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical
ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion
should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was
required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.5N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 16.6N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg