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| #903555 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Maria is maintaining a fairly circular area of intense convection with some accompanying banding features. There has also been considerable lightning occurring near the center over the past several hours, confirming the vigor of the core convection. The current intensity is set at 80 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Maria in a couple of hours and will give another estimate of the strength of the hurricane. With warm waters and weak shear anticipated along the projected track of Maria, additional strengthening is forecast. According to the SHIPS-RI guidance, there is a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next day or two. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus and the latest HWRF simulation. Maria is likely to be at category 3 or 4 intensity by the time it moves into the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea. Geostationary satellite fixes and the position estimates from the Martinique radar give a motion of about 290/11 kt. A high pressure area to the north of Maria should maintain the west-northwestward motion for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the high weakens and this should cause a turn toward the north-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model as well as the ECMWF and lies on the left side of the guidance suite. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is likely to strengthen significantly, and is expected to be at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. 2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as for Puerto Rico. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.6N 59.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 63.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.4N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 19.0N 67.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 21.0N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 23.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
