|#903560 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 18.Sep.2017)|
Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
Lee's cloud pattern has deteriorated considerably this morning.
All that remains of the deep convection are a few fragmented bands
in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is generously
held at 30 kt for this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to
increase during the next 12 to 24 hours, and this inhibiting
factor should prevent the cyclone from maintaining what is left
of the deep convection. Consequently, Lee should degenerate into a
remnant low by tonight.
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 290/11
kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
through the entire forecast period, or until the cyclone dissipates
in 3 days or earlier. No significant changes were made to the NHC
track from previous advisory and the official forecast is based
mainly on the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.9N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.0N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 17.1N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 45.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW