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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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#903561 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 18.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Jose is certainly looking less tropical characteristically this
morning. The 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear indicated in the
CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model has separated the fragmented
inner core of Jose farther to the northeast of the partially exposed
surface circulation center. What remains of the deep convective
banding features of the cyclone are confined to the north and east
portions. The initial intensity is lowered a bit to 75 kt based on
the deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective
T-number Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The aforementioned
deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures are forecast to
induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. Because of the
significantly cooler water north of the Gulf Stream and a
persistently harsh upper-level wind environment, Jose should lose
its tropical characteristics around day 4, if not sooner. The
official intensity forecast follows suit and is weighed heavily on
the global models solution and is close to, but a little above, the
SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is a little uncertain because of the significant
cloud structure change during the past 6 hours. Shortwave and
enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a more
north-northeastward short term motion, with the center possibly as
far east as 71.1W. However, an earlier GPM microwave image
and the satellite classification fixes indicated a position bit
farther to the west near 71.2 to 71.5W. As a compromise, I elected
to split the initial position between the two solutions which
yields a northward motion, at about 360/8 kt. There are no
changes to the forecast track philosophy. Jose should continue
northward during the next day or so, then turn north-northeastward
Wednesday as a mid-tropospheric trough passes north of the
hurricane. After the shortwave trough moves northeastward in
3 days, Jose is forecast to drift eastward, then turn
gradually southeastward and southward around day 4 as high
pressure builds over the northeastern United States. The NHC
forecast track has been nudged slightly to the right of the
previous advisory, due primarily to the short term
north-northeastward motion, and is based on a blend of the HCCA and
GFEX (ECMWF/GFS) guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on
the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.
Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could
bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England,
Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were
to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding
would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 33.0N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 34.2N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 37.4N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 38.8N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 39.9N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 38.3N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts