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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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#903644 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 18.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day. The
hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it
remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the
north of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based
on the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will
provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the
hurricane.

Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for
about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane
will likely maintain its intensity during that time. Shortly
thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These
unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead
to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day
3. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and
in good agreement with the consensus aids.

The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion
is northward at 9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy is
unchanged. A continued northward motion at about the same forward
speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane
remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is
expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time
frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in
weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the
south or southwest at the end of the forecast period. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies near the various consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 34.8N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi