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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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#903676 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 18.Sep.2017)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN