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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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#904087 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 21.Sep.2017)
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past
12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical
cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well
to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has
been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme
southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical
storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical
storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National
Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the
threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided.

The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent
ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW
quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and
Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters
of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global
models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h.

Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift
slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track
forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will
continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually
dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the
various track consensus aids.

Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii
were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears
to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days. Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 39.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky